Ep 20: Stock Market Update | The Bull Case for a Santa Claus Rally

What's happening in the stock market today? We tell you all about it in Episode 20. Learn a bunch of new jargon that Jessie makes Jess define for us all as we discuss everything from what the Fed has done and earnings to whatever a "Santa Claus Rally" is... ๐ŸŽ…๐Ÿป๐ŸŽ…๐Ÿฝ๐ŸŽ…๐Ÿฟ๐ŸŽ…

Episode Equity


Stock Market Update November 2023:

  • Deflationary Environment - Inflation is coming down, or not increasing as much closer the Fed's 2%ย target.
  • Dovish Fed - as a result, the Fed is Dovish AKAย less restrictive. They introduced the idea of fed rate cuts in 2024.
  • Favorable Seasonality - Seasonally, the market does well into January. (and the second half of an election year)ย 
  • Fall Harvesting (taxes) - All sellers have left as they need to sell stocks prior to Dec 31st in order to qualify for any losses. This date is normally the end of October for mutual funds.
  • Resilient Consumer - Consumer spending is still very strong, and money markets are at an all time high. Thank you side-hustle culture.
  • No Recession Called - Impending recessionary calls have forced companies to be prepared. Corporate America is becoming lean and adapting.
  • Bullish Santa Claus Rally - This is the question.
  • AI Narrative (and a little drama) - This is increases productivity, which is the solution to a red hot labor market problem.

Here is Jess discussing her overall view on PowerLunch:ย 


Q3 Earnings Delivered Another Strong Quarter Marked By:

  • Y/Y earnings growth of +6.3% (highest since 2022 Q2)
  • Y/Y earnings ex-energy growth of +11.6% (highest since 2021 Q4)
  • Q/Q earnings growth of +7.8% (highest since 2021 Q1)
  • Earnings beat rate of 81.3% (highest since 2021 Q2)
  • Earnings surprise rate of +7.1% (2nd highest since 2021 Q3)

Check Your Portfolio (Twice)

Re-balance, re-adjust, re-access and see if there's some opportunity for your portfolio this holiday season. Don't forget to validate with data. ๐Ÿค“

Jessie's Questions

Episode Transcript